Missing Features

When dealing with hype, your correspondent employs the 5 times one half rule: About 50% of what is promised in 1 year will be available in 5.

When a new industry is born there is typically an initial economic bubble surrounding the companies that work in that industry. Usually that bubble bursts, and from the ashes rises a more stable, yet still rich era of innovation. Sadly, in the first 100 years of a new industry most of the innovation happens in the first 20 years.

Let’s look at the aerospace industry, specifically the design of the propeller during the start of the commercial aviation industry. The Wright brothers — the first successful airplane designers, builders and pilots — pretty much designed the perfect propeller around 1900, and little has been improved since:

“Their original propeller blades are only about 5% less efficient than the modern equivalent, some 100 years later.” (Source: Wikipedia, Propellor)

In the beginning of the aerospace industry you had engineers like Howard Hughes building and running commercial aviation companies like Pan Am, innovating and experimenting. But then the engineers retire and the suits start to run companies with predictable cash flows to satisfy shareholder.

The same is true for the PC industry. The internet/PC revolution is at full speed, but didn’t really start until 1985. That means we are only just finished with the second decade of this new era. Indeed, as we enter in the third decade we see some engineers like Bill Gates winding down their involvement in the companies they created, while still having others like Larry Ellison and Michael Dell at the helm.

This won’t last forever. In 20 years, few founders will be running major technology companies that existed before 2000. That probably includes favorites like Apple, Salesforce and Google. And the innovation will slow down dramatically.

When airplanes first appeared, it was going to usher in an era of high-speed travel for the masses. But it took almost 90 years until commercial aviation was affordable for everybody, and still little has improved in commercial aviation.

This PC/internet revolution we are in will change everything (and has already changed so much). The use of computers in everyday life will expand into more facets of the daily routine, but at the same become less visible.

Since we have so many smart people running around thinking great new ideas, we think they are immediately possible. Voice-over-IP (VOIP) was supposed to kill the telecoms industry in 1998, but it took almost about 7 years to even get somewhat competitive (and now most telecoms are in the VOIP game anyway).

And now we have web software: it’s supposed to kill Microsoft Office today. It won’t, but it might be able to do 50% of what office does in about five years.

When a hot new technology appears that’s going to change everything, remember: expect half of what is promised in five years instead of one.

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